- Sector
- Construction & Infrastructure
- Age
- 10w
- Strength
- 73.2%
- Since Entry
- +5.4%
Stocks with exit risk of 45% or higher make up 47% of aligned stocks, more than the 30% that entered in the last 4 weeks. The top entry candidate, HanaMicronInc., is 1.8x as likely to align within 4 weeks as the base rate for the current market regime.
Semiconductor has the most new entries over the last 4 weeks. None of the listed candidates is at least twice the base rate.
Entry probabilities are read from an empirical grid since Sep 2023 — bucketed by each sector/node's new entries over the past 4 weeks and the market regime, using the actual share that entered within 4 weeks in that bucket. The 'x' multiplier is relative to the baseline rate for the same market regime.
The pattern rises monotonically across regimes even after controlling for overall market entry rate in terciles, so it isn't purely a rising-tide effect. That said, sector co-movement at entry time does not predict how long the alignment will last — contagion signals which stocks may enter next, not how long they'll stay.
Stocks with exit risk of 45% or higher cluster in Financial Services (5) and Unclassified (3). The average exit risk across all aligned stocks is 43%.